Kim Jong Il's Absence Raises Question on Health

Kim Jong Il's Absence Raises Question on Health

By Glenn Kessler and Ariana Eunjung Cha
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, September 9, 2008; 2:53 PM

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il failed to appear at North Korea's 60th anniversary parade today, lending credence to intelligence reports that he might be gravely ill. Kim, known in the communist north as "Dear Leader," typically presides over mass gatherings on such occasions, waving to crowds as they shout praises to him in unison.

U.S. sources, citing South Korean and Japanese intelligence reports, said they believe Kim, 66, suffered a stroke in mid-August. Kim was last seen in public Aug. 14, and shortly after that, North Korea announced that it would be reassembling its Yongbyon nuclear reactor that it had agreed to dismantle under a landmark accord to end its nuclear weapons programs.

Chosun Ilbo, a South Korean newspaper, today also quoted an official with the South Korean Embassy in Beijing who said the reclusive Kim, who suffers from diabetes and heart problems, collapsed on Aug. 22. The South Korean newspaper noted, however, that actions by the North Korean Embassy and business officials in China did not suggest major panic.

A U.S. intelligence official in Washington said that Kim's "apparent stroke" took place earlier than Aug. 22, and that Aug. 14 -- the last day Kim was seen in public -- was "within the realm of possibility."

Kim's poor health has been a subject of speculation for decades, with experts analyzing his every public appearance. The North Korean government treats his health like a state secret, so it has been impossible to differentiate between true reports and rumors.

In recent months, a variety of media outlets have reported that he was so weak he could not walk 30 meters (he later appeared in public and seemed to be able to walk fine), that a group of German doctors went to North Korea to perform heart surgery on him (the doctors denied it) and that he passed away (most likely untrue since he's since appeared in public, but at least one veteran expert has suggested the government could be using body doubles).

"The problem with North Korea-related stories is that none of us can confirm them unless we go and ask them, and so much of these remain to be speculation," said Koh Yu-whan, a professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University in Seoul.

Charles "Jack" Pritchard, president of the Korea Economic Institute in Washington, said there have been many false reports of the health of Kim and his late father, Kim Il Sung, over the years. But he did find it significant that Kim appears to have missed the 60th anniversary parade, considering the milestone's special significance in Asian cultures.

"The 60th anniversary is not something to be missed," he said. "It is the fifth cycle of 12, which for Asians is a special deal."

Koh cautioned against reading too much into Kim's absence today: "It is not unusual for the Chairman Kim to disappear from the public view, especially when the tensions on the Korean peninsula rise or there are important decisions for him to make."

Last November, as part of an agreement that exchanged aid for disarmament, North Korea began disabling its Soviet-era reactor and related facilities at Yongbyon. But in August, it reversed course, claiming the United States had not lived up to its promise to remove North Korea from the State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism. U.S. officials counter that removal from the list was contingent on Pyongyang agreeing to a plan to verify its claims about its nuclear programs -- and no agreement has yet been reached.

If Kim were to fall seriously ill or die, the line of succession is unclear. The North Korean leader has three sons by two women but none of them have been put in prominent public positions. There is also speculation that a collective governing system, perhaps similar to China's, will emerge.

Some analysts say that the Communist Party in North Korea is split between those who are on the "military" side and those on the "practical" side with Kim caught in the middle. Those on the military side have more of an interest in acquiring nuclear weapons and those on the other side believe that food shortages and other issues related to the country's impoverished economy should be the top priority.

In a cryptic comment Aug. 26, the official KCNA news agency carried a statement from North Korea's Foreign Ministry that "we will consider restoring the Yongbyon facilities to their original state in accordance with strong demands from our relevant agencies." Some analysts believe the statement was a reference to pressure from the North Korean military to pull out of the deal.

Kim's death could lead to "conflict inside the party. All the factions believe that their governing strategies are right. The military and practical side will have conflict," said Shi Yuanhua, director of Korean Center at Fudan University in Shanghai.

"If the military side gets the power, their policy will be harder," Shi said.

Chu Shulong, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University and a foreign policy adviser to the Chinese government, believes that the North Korean leadership is more united.

"In North Korea, the party controls the government and the military. So, in general, the opinion of the military and the government or the party will be the same. The situation that the military wants to develop the nuclear program but the government doesn't is unlikely," Chu said.